Emmys 2019

Predicting the Winners

Published September 15, 2019

COMEDY

Lead Actor

Bill Hader

Barry

Confidence Level: 95%

Should Win: Bill Hader (Barry) - for an incredible 2nd season of Barry

Actually Won: Bill Hader

Lead Actress

Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Veep

Confidence Level: 60%

Should Win: Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag) - although she wouldn't look as good accepting the Emmy as she did at her mother's funeral

Actually Won: Phoebe Waller-Bridge

Supporting Actress

Olivia Colman

Fleabag

Confidence Level: 45%

Should Win: Sarah Goldberg (Barry) - deserved the Emmy for this monologue alone

Actually Won: Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

Supporting Actor

Tony Shalhoub

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Confidence Level: 35%

Should Win: Anthony Carrigan (Barry) - but he should split the Emmy 50/50 with Cristobal

Actually Won: Tony Shalhoub

Writing

Fleabag

Episode 1

Confidence Level: 85%

Should Win: Fleabag "Episode 1" - some of the best writing in the history of awkward family dinners

Actually Won: Fleabag "Episode 1"

Directing

Barry

ronny/lily

Confidence Level: 80%

Should Win: Barry "ronny/lily"

Actually Won: Fleabag "Episode 1"

Outstanding Comedy Series

Barry

HBO

In this strange year where Comedy is the biggest toss-up category, I am predicting HBO's phenomenal second season of Barry to come out on top. It will have to beat several equally impressive nominees, including the 7th and final season of Veep, last year's winner The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and TCA winner of "Program of the Year" - Fleabag. Any of these 4 would not be a very surprising win.

Confidence Level: 25%

Should Win: Fleabag (Amazon Prime Video)

Actually Won: Fleabag (Amazon Prime Video)

DRAMA

Lead Actor

Bob Odenkirk

Better Call Saul

Confidence Level: 35%

Should Win: No one - 2019's bland batch of nominees in this category proves that TV is all about strong female leads these days.

Actually Won: Billy Porter (Pose)

Lead Actress

Sandra Oh

Killing Eve

Confidence Level: 80%

Should Win: Jodie Comer (Killing Eve) - although the hype train is full steam ahead for Oh to become the first Asian American to win this award, her co-star's performances are much more interesting

Actually Won: Jodie Comer

Supporting Actress

Julia Garner

Ozark

Confidence Level: 40%

Should Win: Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) - who wasn't even nominated in a category where literally 4 out of 6 nominees are from GoT.

Actually Won: Julia Garner

Supporting Actor

Peter Dinklage

Game of Thrones

Confidence Level: 90%

Should Win: Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Game of Thrones) - Benioff and Weiss did everything they could to ruin the character arc for Jamie Lannister but Dinklage has enough Emmys already so give one to Nikolaj finally, please.

Actually Won: Peter Dinklage

Writing

Nice and Neat

Killing Eve

Confidence Level: 70%

Should Win: Succession "Nobody is Ever Missing" - The finale of Succession's first season was incredible and deserves this award. But whoever votes in this category nominated the GoT finale as well so I have no faith in them.

Actually Won: Succession "Nobody is Ever Missing"

Directing

Game of Thrones

The Long Night

Confidence Level: 85%

Should Win: Game of Thrones "The Long Night" - no matter your opinion on the writing of the last season, this episode was an incredible achievement in Directing and should be honoured as such.

Actually Won: Ozark "Reparations"

Outstanding Drama Series

Game of Thrones

HBO

The common consensus is that HBO has successfully bluffed their way into a Best Drama win this year. Several of the other heavyweights in this category (Handmaid's Tale, Stranger Things, Big Little Lies) seem to have intentionally delayed their premiers to avoid competing with the final season of Game of Thrones for ratings, media attention, or Emmys. No one could have known how utterly disappointing the final season would be, but then again all of the other seasons nominated for Outstanding Drama Series also failed to excite people enough to rally behind them for an upset, therefore leaving GoT as the default winner.

Confidence Level: 90%

Should Win: Succession (HBO) - The initial season of HBO's new tragicomedy-drama is the only thing as artistically compelling enough to deserve an Emmy. (Unless you count Amazon's Homecoming which didn't even get nominated.)

Actually Won: Game of Thrones (HBO)

LIMITED SERIES

Lead Actor

Jharrel Jerome

When They See Us

Confidence Level: 65%

Should Win: Sam Rockwell (Fosse/Verdon) - I really want to say Jared Harris for Chernobyl but Rockwell's performance as Bob Fosse was nothing short of transformative.

Actually Won: Jharrel Jerome

Lead Actress

Michelle Williams

Fosse/Verdon

Confidence Level: 50%

Should Win: Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon) - This award is a coin-flip between Williams and Patricia Arquette (Escape at Dannemora). Both are amazing performances but Williams as Gwen Verdon wins in my book.

Actually Won: Michelle Williams

Supporting Actress

Patricia Clarkson

Sharp Objects

Confidence Level: 98%

Should Win: Patricia Clarkson (Sharp Objects) - Sharp Objects has lost most of its awards hype in the face of newer challengers... with one exception. Everyone decided they were voting Patricia Clarkson and haven't waivered since Sharp Objects aired over a year ago.

Actually Won: Patricia Arquette (The Act)

Supporting Actor

Ben Whishaw

A Very English Scandal

Confidence Level: 80%

Should Win: Ben Whishaw (A Very English Scandal) - Whishaw's performance as Norman Scott has already earned him several awards, and I expect the Emmy will be his next.

Actually Won: Ben Whishaw

Writing

Chernobyl

HBO

Confidence Level: 85%

Should Win: Chernobyl - HBO's amazing miniseries asks 2 important questions: First, what is the cost of lies? And secondly, how does an RBMK reactor explode? The way it answers these questions makes it deserving of this award.

Actually Won: Chernobyl

Directing

When They See Us

Netflix

Confidence Level: 70%

Should Win: Chernobyl - The entire miniseries was incredibly well directed throughout every shot of every episode, but if I had to choose just one scene to prove it should win Best Directing, it would be this one.

Actually Won: Chernobyl

Outstanding Limited Series

Chernobyl

HBO

Once again this year's Limited Series category is hotly contested, maybe even more so than Best Comedy. The nominees also include Netflix's When They See Us, Showtime's Escape at Dannemora, FX's Fosse/Verdon, and HBO's Sharp Objects. Any one of these would likely be a front-runner in any other year (and would probably win in this year's lame Drama category). Most experts predict When They See Us for the win, and I would agree if this were the Oscars, but I have to go with Chernobyl, a true masterpiece of television. (Plus it gets a little help from the HBO voter block.)

Confidence Level: 50%

Should Win: Chernobyl (HBO) - Because it has everything that makes a great award winner.

Actually Won: Chernobyl